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Best and Worst March Madness Square Numbers


We have analyzed the final scores from every NCAA Tournament game from year 2000 until now, to show which numbers and number combinations are most likely to happen in your NCAA Square Pool.


We used the final score from all 63 games of each of the 16 tournaments for a total of 1008 number combinations. This data does not include the play-in games.


Individual Numbers

First we will take a look at which individual numbers appeared the most times. From the table below, using the past 16 March Madness tournaments, there are 2016 possible team scores. As we expected there is not a whole lot a fluctuating for the individual numbers. However, the most common number was a 4 and the least common number was a 1.

The number 4 appeared 212 times

The number 5 appeared 208 times

The number 8 appeared 207 times

The number 7 appeared 206 times

The number 2 appeared 203 times

The number 9 appeared 202 times

The number 6 appeared 200 times

The number 0 appeared 198 times

The number 3 appeared 194 times

The number 1 appeared 186 times


Number Combinations

The chart below shows the number of times each possible number combination has appeared. There are a total of 1008 final scores used to make up this chart. The most popular number combination is a tie between (7 and 5) and (4 and 1), both appearing 28 times.


To use this chart, simply find the largest of your 2 numbers in the left column, then the smallest of your 2 numbers in the top row. Where these numbers intersect will show the number of times this combination has appeared.

Best March Madness Square Numbers and Odds

Conclusion

The most obvious assumption to take away from this chart is that you do not want to end up with duplicate numbers(same number in the top row and left column). As you can see from the chart, the 10 different duplicate numbers were the last 10 in most common occurrences. Obviously the reason for this is a game cannot end in a tie, therefore in order to win a square with a duplicate number a team would have to win by at least 10 points.


Other than that, there's not a whole lot of difference from one number combination to the next. Most of the number combinations appeared between 17-24 times. The least common non-duplicate number combination was 8 and 4, only appearing 13 times.


Odds of Winning a Square

Ignoring the chart above and assuming you are in a pool where all 63 games of the tournament are being used, and you are using a 100 square grid. You have 63 out of 100 or a 63% chance of having at least 1 winning square.